What will finance in 2026 look like for entrepreneurs in the technology sector? The coming year is not only a challenge related to the mandatory KSeF, but also a huge opportunity for automation driven by AI and attractive valuations in M&A transactions. As Incro’s external CFO, we observe all of these changes firsthand through conversations with dozens of CFOs. In this article, we share our insights and practical recommendations for the year ahead.
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The AI Revolution in Finance in 2026 – What Does It Mean for Entrepreneurs? Is It the End of the Hallucination Era?
Artificial intelligence in finance is no longer a futuristic vision – it’s becoming everyday reality. However, the key question remains: can we trust it with calculations?
The Hallucination Problem in Language Models
Most AI-based financial platforms operate according to a simple scheme: a traditional data calculation tool is “wrapped” with an artificial intelligence interface. The language model has access to data and draws conclusions from it, responding to user questions through chat.
Sounds great, but there’s one fundamental problem.
“Most commonly through chat, AI does literally everything including calculations. It’s more like a machine that can inspire us, help us approach things conceptually, maybe even relieve some work, but for now, you still have to check it.”
ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini are not and won’t be good at calculations in 2026 – and certainly not at repeatable calculations. All global language models are fighting to minimize hallucinations, but none guarantees one hundred percent accuracy.
The Solution: Dedicated Financial Models Plus AI
At Incro, we approached the problem differently. Our CFO Studio tool uses dedicated mathematical models for calculations, while artificial intelligence serves only to interpret and contextualize results.
“Our dedicated models do the calculations, and artificial intelligence helps us provide that verbal context, which it’s already really good at. All calculations remain with the mathematical model.”
This approach addresses CFOs’ main fear of implementing AI: lack of certainty about results. The language model allows you to “empathize” with data – quickly compare it, interpret it, and translate it into language understandable for all company departments, not just finance.
Democratization of Financial Data
AI in finance opens doors to the world of numbers for non-financial people. Marketing, HR, sales – all departments can finally look into Excel sheets without fear of formulas.
“This is also an era of an approach where non-financial people can now look into purely financial matters because they’re explained in the same way as everything else.”
The assumption is simple: democratize numbers and show that everything comes down to revenue, cost, and profit. And at the same time, make it simpler, faster, and more agile for people with different competencies.
Practical for Entrepreneurs Applications of AI in Finance 2026
Based on several conversations with CFOs, we see recurring needs:
1. Financial results consolidation – Work that doesn’t add value – copying, excluding, comparing numbers. Classic intercompany (settlements within capital groups) is an analyst’s nightmare. AI can automate this.
2. Forecasting – A forecasting model requires regular data refresh from multiple systems. CFO Studio can do this automatically.
Warning:
“It requires implementation first, meaning there’s an analyst who recognizes the business model, is a conversation partner for financiers on the client side, and only when the model is built do you plug in the LLM.”
3. Quick ad hoc analysis – You have a board meeting in 15 minutes. You need analysis from a huge database. An analyst might need an hour. AI can give you an answer immediately – and that’s a game-changer.
Excel Meets Claude: New Tools on the Horizon
Anthropic (creator of Claude) introduced a plugin for Excel, connecting its LLM with spreadsheets. Similar solutions are popping up like mushrooms after rain.
Is this a threat to dedicated financial platforms? Not necessarily.
These tools work best as accelerators for experienced users. Chat builds formulas that reference specific data – you can always check where the number comes from. It doesn’t replace an expert but makes them even faster and more effective.
The problem appears when an inexperienced person tries to model finances without background. They’ll create something, but will they verify it? Doubtful.
What’s New for Entrepreneurs in Finance 2026: The Revolution in Polish Accounting – KSeF
The National e-Invoice System (KSeF) is not just a legal requirement – it’s an opportunity for lighter finances for anyone running an honest business.
What Exactly Is Changing?
From 2026, most invoices in Poland must go through the KSeF system. Data is structured, available immediately, and in a machine-readable standard.
For exporting companies, the change will be less noticeable – foreign invoices don’t enter KSeF. But for businesses operating mainly in Poland? It’s a game-changer.
“Great thing because this data is now much faster. And also in such a standard that is available, structured, you can use it.”
Big Brother or Convenience?
Yes, the tax office will have better insight into company transactions. But let’s be honest – even today, bank accounts and systems detecting anomalies work very efficiently. KSeF is just closing this ecosystem.
For honest entrepreneurs, it’s primarily a tool that will allow for lighter work. Herds of people dealing with document processing? They can finally focus on valuable work.
No More Waiting for Cost Invoices
Even if you issue invoices on time, you still have to wait for documents from contractors. Service done, money may have already been transferred, and you’re still waiting for an invoice to close the books.
KSeF partially solves this problem – at least you know the document is already in the system.
Challenges for Software Houses
In subscription businesses, invoicing is simple. But software houses …
“The entire software house sector must calculate this based on projects, people involved in the project, their individual hourly rates, hours they spent on a given project – there’s probably some slight chaos there.”
The process may be more complicated here, but the benefits remain: super-fast access to costs and better cashflow forecasting capability.
Cashflow Forecast: The Holy Grail of Finance
KSeF provides data faster, but does it solve the cash flow forecasting problem?
Unfortunately, not entirely. Cashflow lives its own life – it consists of dozens, hundreds, thousands of individual elements. Just a few shifts, and the entire forecast can fall apart.
“In those companies that need to have their cashflow buttoned up to the last button, human supervision is needed today because cashflow simply lives its own life.”
That’s why at Incro we’re working on a cashflow module in CFO Studio that will combine AI speed with the precision of dedicated models. This will be one of the key development areas in 2026.
Remember: in January, it’s worth having a document flow implemented that’s compliant with KSeF. If you run a business in Poland and haven’t done this yet this is the last call.
M&A and Finance 2026 for Entrepreneurs: A Time of Consolidation in Polish IT
The technology industry in Poland is undergoing transformation. After the COVID-induced slowdown, an era of consolidation is coming.
What Has Been Happening So Far?
The pandemic brutally verified the Polish IT sector:
- Non-specialized software houses took a hit to EBITDA or collapsed
- Niche companies not only maintained profitability but often increased it
- The strong started buying the weak – wave of consolidation is gaining pace
- Global players started shopping in Poland
Product Trend: Everyone Has Something of Their Own
Fascinating discovery from conversations with Incro clients: every software house already has some product. There are no more pure service providers.
“No one is without a product. Each of our service-based Software House clients has some kind of product. It’s either a SaaS made for something, or a product in the form of some Open Source.”
Sometimes it’s a lead magnet operating on an open-source basis. Sometimes a free tool that generates leads for paid implementations. Sometimes a full-fledged SaaS.
Why? Because deep specialization and own IP dramatically increase valuation in a potential sale.
Valuation: What Do Investors Look At?
When valuing software houses, investors analyze several key elements:
- Specialization – does the company have a unique niche?
- Large clients, long contracts – are revenues predictable?
- Own IP – does the company have something unique, hard to copy?
Paradoxically, larger businesses working with larger clients are often valued better, even if margins are lower. Why? Because the stream of orders is unlikely to dry up – this reduces risk for the investor.
Selling Your Company in 2026? Key Steps
If you’re considering an exit this year, here are the most important tips:
1. Do internal due diligence – now
“First of all, I’d do internal due diligence, a kind of examination of conscience. If someone wants to sell in 2026, I’d already go to an advisor.”
Check:
- Are the numbers true and clean?
- Is there anything that lowers valuation?
- Can the business operate without you?
- Is your technology easy to copy?
2. Watch out for “skeletons in the closet”
Strange payments, messy financial matters, lack of process documentation – all this lowers valuation. And not by 5-10%, but by 30-50%.
“This is an okay approach when we accept that we may have an undervalued valuation by even 30-40%. Are you saying, you bounce the ball back and say, well get lost, only you’re selling the business half cheaper? I guess so.”
3. If you only have 6 months left…
You can still do something. “Backward” management analytics – organizing historical data, separating business line profitability, identifying adjusted EBITDA.
The risk of lower valuation then drops from 30-40% to about 15%. You’re still fighting for big money.
Source data is crucial. Do you know what that large invoice from two years ago was about? Can you exclude it from EBITDA as a one-time cost? Every detail counts here.
4. Can every business be prepared?
No. Sometimes it turns out the company is unsellable:
- The CEO is essential for operations
- Technology is easy to copy
- Lack of specialization exposes to global competition
Better to find out earlier than during negotiations.
Who’s Buying in 2026?
There won’t be one dominant buyer group. We expect “cross” consolidation:
- Strategic players buy competition to increase market share
- Service companies buy product companies to add their own IP
- Product companies buy know-how, not so much clients
“The topic of selling companies has become not so foreign and suddenly an option for a company’s growth is that I’ll buy another one and entrepreneurs have this in mind.”
Interestingly, it’s no longer just the largest businesses. Entrepreneurs of medium-sized tech companies are increasingly considering acquisitions as a growth strategy.
Many founders build a company with its sale in mind – this is a new pattern that didn’t exist in Poland before.
Forecasts for 2026
We expect deepening of the trend of M&A transactions. Conversations with software house CEOs show cautious optimism – after a difficult 2025, there’s a “thaw.” Contracts are closing, business is returning.
This means companies will grow nicely, transactions will be more attractive and probably larger.
For sellers: this could be a good year for exit. For buyers: this could be a good year for strategic acquisition.
Summary of Finance 2026 for Entrepreneurs: A Year of Change and Opportunity
The year 2026 in finance and technology promises to be exciting:
AI in finance stops being an experiment, becomes a tool – but only where it solves the hallucination problem through dedicated mathematical models.
KSeF is not bureaucracy, but an opportunity for automation and lighter finances – if you’re prepared.
M&A in IT is gaining momentum – it’s time for sellers to get good valuations and for buyers to make strategic acquisitions.
Regardless of where your company is, the key is clean finances, organized data, and a clear strategy. That’s exactly what we do at Incro – we prepare Investor Ready companies, arranging finances so that valuation and profitability grow.
Have questions about AI in finance, KSeF preparation, or a potential M&A transaction? Schedule a conversation through https://incro.us/contact/ .
Q&A: Most Common Questions from Entrepreneurs About Finance in 2026
1. Can I trust AI with financial calculations?
It depends on implementation. Standard language models (ChatGPT, Claude) hallucinate and shouldn’t be used directly for calculations. A safe solution is dedicated mathematical models for calculations + AI for interpreting results. This way you gain speed and context without the risk of incorrect data.
2. Is KSeF just an additional obligation or a real benefit?
It’s primarily a benefit. Main advantages: immediate access to cost data, faster period closing, better basis for cashflow forecasting, and reduced work in document processing. For companies with clean finances, KSeF is a tool, not an obstacle.
3. How long does it take to prepare an IT company for sale?
Optimal preparation is 2-3 years – allows you to have clean, closed financial periods without adjustments. If you only have 6 months, you can do “backward” management analytics, but the risk of lower valuation increases. The less time, the greater the risk of undervaluation by 15-30%. Internal due diligence is an absolute minimum.
4. What increases software house valuation the most?
Three key elements: deep specialization (unique niche), large clients on long contracts (predictable revenues), and own IP – product, open source, or unique technology. Paradoxically, larger companies serving enterprises often get better multiples than small agencies, despite lower margins – the investor pays for stability.
5. Will Excel with AI replace CFOs?
No. Tools like “Excel + LLM” speed up the work of experienced financiers, but won’t replace expertise. They provide the greatest value to people who already understand finance – helping them be 5-10x faster. A person without financial background can create a model, but probably won’t verify its correctness.
6. How will AI change finance teams in the coming years?
We expect back-offices (including finance) to be significantly smaller. Instead of five people in the accounting/controlling department, one or two with appropriate AI tools will suffice. Challenge: where will juniors come from in 5-10 years if seniors with AI no longer need them for training? This is a question without an answer, but important to consider.